It's Election Time!

Ali Gunertem
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Only one and a half months are left until the Presidential elections. Pre-election preparations and campaigns are going full stream. The focus of discussions is changing fast, and right now military records and army services of the candidates are the hot topics.
Usually after conventions, the presidential candidate gains several points in the polls. Kerry’s nomination at the Democratic convention was an exception. I believe that the reason is Democratic campaigners’ failure to understand the psychological state of the American public after the September 11 attacks. Studies of the US history and polls conducted before the elections suggest that American policy in the world is the most important factor in Presidential elections. National security ranks first, followed by the economy.

Recent polls indicate that the American public puts more trust in President Bush than in Kerry when it comes to national security. Aware of this tendency, the Democrats emphasized domestic issues throughout the convention and hinted that their election campaign’s central theme will be domestic issues. On the other hand, the Republicans stress national security and foreign policy issues at their convention, which took place in New York City at the end of August.

Apparently President Bush will take a leap forward in polls until the one-to-one debates start. The reason is the post-9-11 world order and the degree to which voters are interested in the changing world. Traditionally Americans base their votes on the domestic program and proposals presented by the presidential candidates. Since this time the elections are going to take place in a new era, I believe that the winning campaign will be the one that puts more emphasis on foreign policy and national security.

At this point I want to point out few anecdotes for our readers who follow the election campaigns from their TVs. It would be misleading to reach a general conclusion about the entire American electorate based on the wide scale protests against the Republican convention in New York. Although New York is generally regarded as a stronghold for the Democrats, observers should keep in mind the southern states, where patriotism and American nationalism are held above all values. Support for Bush in rural America is quite strong. The outcome of the elections will be decided by the electorate from rural areas rather than urban voters in cosmopolite cities. Candidates must win the votes of these people in order to become the next president.

(November 2004, 14th Issue)
Last modified onSaturday, 06 May 2017 10:07
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